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03/16/2010 -
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) -The Big 12's coaches spent an entire season, even some time before it, telling anyone who'd listen this was the conference's strongest year ever.
Turns out, they were right.
The Big 12 earned a conference-record seven NCAA tournament bids Sunday, including the No. 1 overall seed and two more in the top three, validating what its coaches have been saying all along.
``The more the merrier,'' Oklahoma coach Travis Ford said Monday. ``I know our coaches are always pleased when they see people value the product that the Big 12 schools are putting out there. To get over half your teams into the NCAA tournament is a very, very nice compliment.''
Football has been the calling card for the Big 12 since it formed in 1996, the perception being that Kansas and Oklahoma State were the only teams playing real basketball.
The league has gradually changed its acumen over the past few years as Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri joined the Jayhawks in making deep runs in the NCAA tournament.
Still, six NCAA berths was the best the Big 12 could do - seven times, including the past two seasons - feeding an inferiority complex, as if the basketball power conferences were a big brother who wouldn't let them win at anything.
Now that Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas are in, this relatively new conference has moved up to a level usually reserved for older powerhouses like the Big East and ACC.
``As far as us getting seven in this year, my response is: It's about time,'' Kansas State coach Frank Martin said.
Kansas, no surprise, earned the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament. The Jayhawks start Thursday in Oklahoma City, against Lehigh.
A monumental mismatch? Probably. But after that, the road gets tougher.
The Midwest regional is considered the toughest in the tournament, one potential land mine after another awaiting the top-ranked Jayhawks.
Get by Lehigh and the second round, Kansas could face Michigan State or Maryland in the regional semifinals, then could face Georgetown or one of the two teams that gave the Jayhawks their two losses, Oklahoma State or Tennessee.
Even for a team that's as deep as any in the country, one that spent all but four weeks at No. 1, that's a tough gauntlet.
``I do believe this is a very, very difficult region,'' Kansas coach Bill Self said. ``But, from my standpoint, to get to where you want to go, you should have to beat good people. I'm sure no matter who gets to Indianapolis they're going to have a tough road.''
Kansas State set a school record for wins and has its highest seeding ever, No. 2 in the West. The seventh-ranked Wildcats open the NCAA tournament against North Texas in Oklahoma City on Thursday.
Baylor, No. 3 in the South and 19th in the nation, also starts on Thursday, against Sam Houston State in New Orleans. No. 23 Texas A&M gets Utah State in Spokane, Wash., as the fifth seed in the South, and Oklahoma State faces a tough first-round matchup against Georgia Tech as the seventh seed in Milwaukee. The Aggies and Cowboys both play Friday.
The other Big 12 teams in the NCAA tournament need to make quick turnarounds.
Missouri closed out the season by losing three of its final four games, including to last-place Nebraska in the conference tournament. The Tigers open Friday in Buffalo, N.Y., against Clemson in what's likely to be the fastest game of the tournament.
Then there's Texas.
The former No. 1 team in the nation, the Longhorns followed a 17-0 start with a crash, going 9-7 during the Big 12 regular season. Texas is the eighth seed in the East regional and opens against Wake Forest on Thursday in New Orleans, hoping to get one potentially momentum-changing win.
``One game, it can swing quickly,'' Texas coach Rick Barnes said. ``We see it all the time, teams come into that have been down and out, and they catch it and kind of ride the wave with it ... This time of year, one game here or there, one play here or there can really swing it.''
After playing in the rugged Big 12, the Longhorns should be ready for it.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Struggling Bruins visit Hurricanes >>
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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