A Super Victory for Pletcher and Borel

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 0 for 24? Make that 1 for...who's counting!

Seconds after Super Saver cruised past the finish line in the 136th Kentucky Derby, all of Todd Pletcher's previous setbacks meant absolutely nothing. The four-time Eclipse Award-winner can no longer be viewed as the most preeminent trainer in the country without a Derby victory.

Pletcher seemed to not even be fazed by finally getting the monkey off his back and handled the win as one would have expected - cool, calm and collected.

The horse that got him to this point wasn't the highly-touted Eskendereya, who had to bow out of the race one week earlier, but WinStar Farm's Super Saver, who wound up the 8-1 second-choice in the Run for the Roses.

The homebred had a few things in his favor this past Saturday, first of which was an affinity for the wet going - the colt already owned a prior victory in the slop last September at Belmont Park.

Second, a win over the Churchill Downs surface is always a plus and Super Saver had that going for him as well.

Third, and perhaps most important, he had Calvin Borel in the saddle.

Winning the Kentucky Derby has become old hat for Borel as the veteran jockey flat-out owns the race with three victories in the last four years.

The Louisiana native had Super Saver on the rail (his trademark spot) for almost the entire length of the Derby and the bay colt responded with a 2 1/2- length win over the late closing Ice Box. The final time for the 1 1/4-mile event was 2:04 2/5 seconds over the sloppy track.

Speaking of Ice Box, the Florida Derby winner suffered through a nasty trip having to steady on three separate occasions during the race. His second-place finish should put to rest any negative thoughts of horses coming into the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff.

As was the case with Super Saver, another horse that hugged the rail almost the entire way was Paddy O'Prado. The third-place finisher had pretty much the same trip as the winner, but was always a few lengths behind. Still, a very good performance from a colt whose lone conventional dirt race was a seventh- place finish last July.

Longshot Make Music for Me closed well from last to wind up fourth completing a superfecta worth $202,559.20.

It was the fourth straight year the winner had just two prep races in his three-year-old campaign - something to keep in mind when handicapping the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

OTHER TOP PERFORMANCES

Noble's Promise wasn't even expected to enter the race after a dismal fifth- place finish in the Arkansas Derby. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt was suffering from a lung infection, not to mention receiving cuts and scrapes during the running of the race.

However, the gritty three-year-old, with a pedigree that most experts thought wouldn't allow him to compete at 10 furlongs, came through with a sensational effort taking the lead approaching the top of the stretch before fading to fifth at the wire.

Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 favorite, had another eventful trip, his fourth in his last five appearances. The two-year-old champ was up against it way back on Wednesday when he drew post position one, and the race played out exactly as expected.

After getting roughed up by Noble's Promise early on, he was then mugged by Stately Victor forcing jockey Garrett Gomez to steady his mount. The three- time grade 1 winner was all the way back in 18th position ahead of just Ice Box and Make Music for Me after the first quarter-mile before closing strongly around the turn.

It's interesting to note that five of the final top eight finishers were 15th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th after a blistering 46-second first-half mile. The only horse far back early on that failed to fire was Awesome Act, who wound up next-to-last in the 20-horse field.

On the other hand, kudos go out to Super Saver and Noble's Promise for being the only two colts in the first flight of horses to earn purse money - Super Saver $1,425,200 for the win and Noble's Promise $60,000 for finishing fifth.

WHERE WAS THE VALUE?

The wait for the Derby is a long one, especially over the winter when most of the betting action is in the form of assorted prep races.

Another way to have action is to play one, two, or all three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. All are risky plays as witnessed by the late defections of Quality Road, The Pamplemousse, I Want Revenge and Eskendereya over the last two years.

Still, there are ways to beat the system.

Super Saver, who went off at 8-1 on race day, was an incredible 35-1 in Pool 3 based on his initial three-year-old prep race at Tampa Bay Downs. The 2010 Kentucky Derby winner was slightly lower odds in the first two wagers closing at 20-1 in Pool 1, followed by 24-1 in Pool 2.

A two-dollar Pool 3 exacta wager with Super Saver over Ice Box also cleaned house compared to Derby Day as the payoff came back a whopping $1,077.40 instead of the minuscule $152.40 at the track.

On the other hand, the exacta in Pools 1 and 2 failed to light up the board since Ice Box was not a single entrant in the first two future wagers. Those payoffs with Super Saver over the "field" were very similar to the actual price at Churchill Downs. The Pool 1 exacta returned just $176.40 while the number in Pool 2 came back a tad higher at $259.20.

LOOKING AHEAD TO BALTIMORE

The Preakness is less than two weeks away on May 15 at Pimlico, and as of now, a full field is expected with Super Saver leading the charge.

Others considering the second leg of the Triple Crown are Lookin At Lucky, Paddy OPrado, Make Music for Me, Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado, Dublin, Pleasant Prince, Jackson Bend, Hurricane Ike, A Little Warm, Aikenite, Bushwacked and Turf Melody

Remember, two of the last four Preakness winners did not race in the Kentucky Derby, a far cry from the previous trend that had just one non-Derby starter (Red Bullet) win the race since Deputed Testamony rolled home in the slop back in 1983.

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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies  

It's that time of year folks.  Betting on American Idol Season 9.  And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below.  With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.

No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.

Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.

A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.

Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol. 

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.

Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.

Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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